Somalia - Environment, Electricity, Business, and Government Assessment

   
         
     
   


Somalia-Environment

My company TKE-International, LLC was invited to Somalia to meet with the current private electric power producer in Mogadishu.  Dallas Peavey, and I went to evaluate the current infrastructure, both electrical and business, to determine level of risk associated with both.  While there I took the opportunity to evaluate the country, although from a cursory point, the current environmental atmosphere.

The information regarding the current condition of Somalia is varied depending on whom is speaking.  Currently the situation in Somalia appears to be on the edge.  The environmental condition of the country is okay.  The business condition is dependent on whom it relates.

Based upon my on the ground evaluation the situation is still precarious, but improving.  Life never ended during the war, but continued on.  As in all wars certain people took advantage of the situation and prospered greatly.  While others suffered immensely.

The environmental consequences of an unbridled conflict with no holds barred, no rules of engagement, and little thought other than to obliterate the opposition party were tremendous.  The culture of thinking about how the spilling of oil onto the ground or into a water way does not exist, as one would expect that over the past 20 years there was more concern about not stepping on a mine in one's own neighborhood.

The African Union's military, paid for by the UN, that maintains order in Somalia states that there are many areas that are secured in the capital city.  Although travel by Americans in anything other than their amour personnel carriers is not recommended, nor do they move within the city after 4PM.  It is clear that they are doing a good job, as the city is peaceful at night.

The unfortunate issue for Somalia is the reputation that they have earned over the years, as a lawless country without any form of national government.  Any incident now is immediately reported in the international news, as if to confirm that the country has not changed.  Yet, put into perspective how many killings are occurring on a daily bases along the US/Mexico border, or even on US soil committed by Mexican gangs?

The Black Hawk Down incident is one that they do not like to discuss.  I suggested that instead of trying to forget it, they should memorialize the US servicemen who died in that incident as heroes.  Put a plaque in the spot of the incident to recognize it.  This would help the healing process.

The government officials of Somalia speak about power generation from renewable resources as one of their dreams.

They understand that their future economy is directly related to energy costs, and they know that renewable energy is their ticket.  Does this mean that they are worried about 'green house' gases, or global warming?  No it does not anymore than anyone that spends the money to install a PV solar system on their home.  It comes down to practical element of 'money'.

Yes, it is a nice thing that not only will they be able to have inexpensive electricity, and be able to tell the world they are doing their part.  But global warming is not the key point.

Now that pricing for PV solar has come to a point where the common citizen can afford to install it, as well as a under-developed country, we will continue to see the growth of this sector.  Especially in these countries where the price of electricity exceeds $500/MW.

Reality and insanity sometimes are hard to discern, and in the case of what the government wants it is especially hard to know the difference.  They want to have the cheapest electricity in all of Africa, less than $0.21/kwh.  What someone wants and what they get are certainly two different things, but these leaders actually believe that can be done in 2 years, or so they say.  What they call a transmission and distribution system is nothing more than long extension cords running 440v from single generators located throughout the city.  In fact anyone that has a generator can be a IPP--talk about a world without regulations.  There are these extension cords that run from one person's generator to one house on the same pole that carries 10, 20 other extension cords from other IPPs to the same neighborhood.

3,000,000 are serviced this way with no more than 40MW.  Now to fix this system will take a concentrated effort of time and money.  And knowing the political system, the money part will include a brief case being left under tables of various key government ministers and their associates.  The Turkish are doing great in Somalia, because they have no problems with this way of doing business.  For the EU and USA firms, I say stay away.